The Urban Design Response to a Pandemic

It's been just over six months since our lives changed in response to COVID-19. In those first days, then weeks, and now months, we've seen many think-pieces, Tweets, and LinkedIn posts about the future of urban development.

But the future impact on cities and built spaces is hard to measure – you'll hear people say cities are dead, you'll hear people say cities are the future. I believe COVID-19 is an indicator that changes will happen more rapidly from now on, regardless of whether or not we're in a pandemic. Companies are more willing to make quick changes, and commercial spaces of the future need to be agile to adapt to these changes. In response to this constant change, the one thing I declare is that we need to be planning and designing for resiliency, inherently placing the flexibility to adapt at the forefront.

Resiliency has been an up-and-coming topic in the urban planning and design fields for a few years now, but its relevance as a goal in planning is critical now. The City of Moore, in its award-winning Envision Moore Plan 2040, used resiliency as a key point throughout its plan. In the Plan, we defined resiliency as:

The ability to be prepared for short- and long-term stresses with a plan that proactively defines strategies that ensure a community can function during and after a hazardous event.

The design and development of cities can play a direct role in how communities function during and after an event. Whether that event is naturally caused or human-made, the ability to move around freely and maintaining physical connections are critical to ensuring resilience in the community.

In response to the need for resilient urban design, the future of cities will be focused on what many people call the 15-minute city or 15-minute neighborhood. We'll build back to clusters of space where we can walk or bike in a 15-minute radius to our daily needs, either working from home and visiting retail stores and other activities within a 15-minute radius or going to smaller satellite offices and co-working spaces in the same area. Large, complex corporate facilities will be developed fewer and far between. As development changes, we'll see the construction of midrise, three to five-story communities akin to Paris or Washington DC, replete with daily services, and smaller clusters of office space intertwined with residences. As Victoria Craig stated on Marketplace Morning Report (September 24, 2020), people "will work from an office, not the office." Other notable leaders and executives are noting the same:

"Fifteen-minute cities, micromobility, and more space for walking and biking are innovative solutions that will help our cities rebuild and restore our economy while protecting lives and cutting dangerous pollution," Carol M. Browner, former EPA administrator and board chair of the League of Conservation Voters

"Downtowns in many major cities, as they are situated today (employment-focused), may be a relic of the past as we see a rebalance of metropolitan regions around a set of ‘hubs and spokes.’" Nate Hood, Senior Planner | Community and Economic Development at Hennepin County Community Works

"We're also seeing companies switch to open hubs where their employees live." ~ Mark Dixon, CEO, and Founder of International Workplace Group (IWG)

"I’m a big believer in the resilience of cities. But, I think the biggest change is likely to come in the remaking of the CBD. Demand for office space looks likely to decline. Creating more integrated mixed use 15-minute neighborhoods would be a very good thing.” Richard Florida, Professor, and Author, Rotman School of Management is part of the University of Toronto

An example of this potential is being built in Oklahoma City right now – The Wheeler District. The long-term intention of this district is to create a full community with amenities and resources for its residents to enjoy a quality life in a walkable, bikeable environment that is less reliant on cars. The urban design at Wheeler may seem otherworldly to some people, but it’s essentially harkening back to how we built cities before automobiles drove urban design. I foresee developments like Wheeler taking back space for people across the United States. People take vacations to visit beautiful, working cities across Europe and some parts of the United States (think Savannah, GA or Charleston, SC), but rarely do they understand that this type of development can be built today. It is possible, and it is a representation of going back to the future.

COVID-19 is also having ancillary impacts on urban design as it relates to access to both personal mobility (bicycles) and to people’s desire to get out of the city and back into nature. Indirectly, this could cause more people to want to spend less on larger homes and more on equipment to get outside and be away.

Active recreation and outdoor living sales have exploded during COVID-19. If usage sticks, it will also create new needs for commercial space and enable more remote working and other opportunities that support those lifestyles:

• Shipments of all RV types were up 10% in June 2020 over June 2019 (13% for towables) RV Industry Association
• “Despite COVID-19 restrictions, 70% of dealers nationwide reported increased sales this spring, according to Donahue’s group. Sales of used boats jumped 74% this year. Overall, boat sales were up 59% in May over April.” John-Michael Donahue, Communication Director for the National Marine Manufacturers Association The Philadelphia Inquirer
• “Sales for traditional bikes, indoor bikes, parts, helmets and other related accessories surged a combined 75 percent (to $1 billion) over last year, according to data from market research firm NPD Group. It was the first time since NPD began tracking the cycling market that sales hit $1 billion in a single month, as April sales typically reach between $550 and $575 million.” Fox Business
• “Basic bikes for leisure sold for under $200 grew by a whopping 203 percent, while children's bikes increased by 107 percent for the month of April, according to NPD data.” Fox Business
• “From March through mid-June 2020, Eco-Counter — a Montreal-based engineering company that designs and provides bicycle and pedestrian counters, and analyzes data — measured a 21% increase in U.S. urban-area ridership compared with the same timeframe in 2019… During that same period, the Rails-to-Trails Conservancy saw a 110% increase in ridership on rail-trails compared to the same time in 2019.” LA Times

Additional Reading:

• Welcome to the 15-minute city
• 7 Rules for Creating "15-Minute Neighborhoods"
• How the ‘15-Minute City’ Could Help Post-Pandemic Recovery
• The 15-Minute City Is Having a Moment
• The 15-Minute City and the Return of the Satellite Office